Cardiff METvs
Haverfordwest County AFC
COMPLETEDWales · Premier League · 9/29/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cardiff MET · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (14%), 3-0 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cardiff MET 1-0 Haverfordwest County AFC
Original prediction
Cardiff MET
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 03:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.86 | 48.5% | 63.4% | 14.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.45 | 26.2% | 20.6% | -5.6 pts |
| Away | 3.56 | 25.3% | 16.0% | -9.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.86 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
14.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–014%
- 2.3–011%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Cardiff MET
Probability
63.4%
Model confidence
63.4%
Cardiff MET has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80