Cardiff METvs
Caernarfon Town
COMPLETEDWales · Premier League · 9/26/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Caernarfon Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cardiff MET 2-2 Caernarfon Town
Original prediction
Caernarfon Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 03:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.18 | 28.2% | 30.2% | 1.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.73 | 24.0% | 23.1% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 1.88 | 47.7% | 46.7% | -1.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.73 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Caernarfon Town
Probability
46.7%
Model confidence
46.7%
Caernarfon Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80
GF 20 · GA 5 · avg 4.00/1.00