Cardiff Draconiansvs
Newport City
COMPLETEDWales · FAW Championship · 10/3/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Newport City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cardiff Draconians 1-1 Newport City
Original prediction
Newport City
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 03:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.60 | 34.9% | 30.2% | -4.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.62 | 25.0% | 24.8% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.27 | 40.0% | 45.0% | 5.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.62 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Newport City
Probability
45.0%
Model confidence
45.0%
Newport City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80