Cardiff Draconiansvs
Carmarthen Town
COMPLETEDWales · FAW Championship · 10/10/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Carmarthen Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (8%), 1-2 (7%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cardiff Draconians 2-2 Carmarthen Town
Original prediction
Carmarthen Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.58 | 35.0% | 34.7% | -0.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.71 | 24.3% | 22.3% | -2.0 pts |
| Away | 2.21 | 40.7% | 43.0% | 2.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.71 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–28%
- 2.1–27%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
Carmarthen Town
Probability
43.0%
Model confidence
43.0%
Carmarthen Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 11 · avg 1.80/2.20
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00