Cardiff Draconiansvs
Caerau (Ely)
COMPLETEDWales · FAW Championship · 9/26/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cardiff Draconians · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (7%), 2-1 (7%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cardiff Draconians 1-3 Caerau (Ely)
Original prediction
Cardiff Draconians
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 03:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.32 | 27.1% | 39.1% | 12.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.92 | 23.0% | 22.3% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 1.80 | 49.9% | 38.6% | -11.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–27%
- 2.2–17%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
Cardiff Draconians
Probability
39.1%
Model confidence
39.1%
Cardiff Draconians has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
GF 12 · GA 12 · avg 2.40/2.40