Cardiff Draconiansvs
Baglan Dragons
COMPLETEDWales · FAW Championship · 9/12/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Baglan Dragons · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cardiff Draconians 2-1 Baglan Dragons
Original prediction
Baglan Dragons
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.18 | 41.3% | 34.9% | -6.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.52 | 25.6% | 27.3% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 2.72 | 33.1% | 37.9% | 4.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Baglan Dragons
Probability
37.9%
Model confidence
37.9%
Baglan Dragons has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60