Catarinense - 2Catarinense - 2
Wednesday, 15 July 202623:00Last updated 12:37
Caravaggio

Caravaggio

Home
W
21
Full time
Tubarao

Tubarao

Away
LLW
GoalVio prediction
58% confidence
Caravaggio(58%)
Most likely exact score2-1
Prediction correct— Result: Caravaggio
Win probability
Caravaggio
58%
Draw
24%
Tubarao
18%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Caravaggio
73
Tubarao
73
Defence
Caravaggio
66
Tubarao
39
Momentum
Caravaggio
100
Tubarao
33
Danger (xG)
Caravaggio
1.80
Tubarao
1.80
Both teams to score
Yes
Over 2.5 goals
Yes
xG for (Caravaggio)
1.80
avg per match
xG for (Tubarao)
1.80
avg per match
xG against (Caravaggio)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Tubarao)
1.50
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
CaravaggioCaravaggio
W
TubaraoTubarao
LLWD

Probability breakdown

58% confidence
Caravaggio58%
Draw24%
Tubarao18%

Caravaggio leads with 58% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Caravaggio head into this in Catarinense - 2 fixture in mixed form (W), while Tubarao arrive in mixed form (LLW). Caravaggio have a 100% win rate across their last 1 matches, compared to 33% for Tubarao over 3 games.

Both teams carry genuine attacking threat — Caravaggio (73/100) and Tubarao (73/100) are both rated highly going forward. The model anticipates an open, goal-heavy contest.

Caravaggio have won all 1 of their recent home fixtures, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game at home. Tubarao have won 1 of their last 3 away fixtures, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per away game.

Caravaggio have the upper hand in recent meetings, winning 1 of the last 1 encounters, averaging 3.0 goals per game, both teams scored in 1 of those fixtures.

The GoalVio engine projects Caravaggio to win with 58% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 2-1. Win probabilities: Caravaggio 5840%, Draw 2355%, Tubarao 1805%. BTTS: Yes, Over 2.5: Yes.

Head to head

Caravaggio 1Draws 00 Tubarao
Avg goals: 3.0BTTS in 1/1
15 Jul 2026
Caravaggio
W21
Tubarao

Recent form

Caravaggio

Caravaggio

W
vs Tubarao
15 Jul 2026
21
Tubarao

Tubarao

L
@ Caravaggio
15 Jul 2026
12
L
vs Metropolitano
12 Jul 2026
23
W
@ Jaraguá
1 Jul 2026
30
D
@ Nação
12 May 2026
00

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Caravaggio vs Tubarao?

GoalVio's model predicts Caravaggio to win with 58% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Caravaggio vs Tubarao?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-1.

Will both teams score in Caravaggio vs Tubarao?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Caravaggio vs Tubarao?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more