Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
CAP · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
CAP are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (WLDLL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Caldense are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLWLD), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and CAP hold an 8.3-point power-rating edge (42.7 v 34.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 24.2% in the Mineiro - 2, while CAP holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 26% BTTS chance and 18% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
CAP
Probability
43.2%
Model confidence
24.2%
CAP has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80