Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cancún · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Cancún are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LLLLD), averaging 0.40 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Tlaxcala are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWWLL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Tlaxcala hold a 5.2-point power-rating edge (13.2 v 18.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 41.7% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Cancún holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 59% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Cancún
Probability
41.7%
Model confidence
41.7%
Cancún has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 10 · avg 0.40/2.00
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20