Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cancún · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Cancún are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWLWW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Tlaxcala are 0W-0D-5L in their last 5 (LLLLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Tlaxcala hold a 5.2-point power-rating edge (13.2 v 18.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 41.7% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Cancún holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 59% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Cancún
Probability
41.7%
Model confidence
41.7%
Cancún has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 4 · GA 13 · avg 0.80/2.60