Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tapatío · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Cancún are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDDWL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Tapatío are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DWLLL), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Tapatío hold a 45.6-point power-rating edge (13.2 v 58.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 46.9% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Tapatío holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 58% BTTS chance and 55% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Tapatío
Probability
46.9%
Model confidence
46.9%
Tapatío has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00