Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tapatío · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Cancún are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWWDW), averaging 2.20 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Tapatío are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WDWLL), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Tapatío hold a 45.6-point power-rating edge (13.2 v 58.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 46.9% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Tapatío holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 58% BTTS chance and 55% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Tapatío
Probability
46.9%
Model confidence
46.9%
Tapatío has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00