Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Monarcas · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Cancún are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWDLW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Monarcas are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DLLWW), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Monarcas hold a 56.2-point power-rating edge (13.2 v 69.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 54.1% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Monarcas holds the strongest overall chance at 54% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 63% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Monarcas
Probability
54.1%
Model confidence
54.1%
Monarcas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00