Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Irapuato · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Cancún are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWLWD), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Irapuato are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WWDWD), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Irapuato hold a 37.8-point power-rating edge (13.2 v 51.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 47.8% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Irapuato holds the strongest overall chance at 48% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 60% BTTS chance and 58% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Irapuato
Probability
47.8%
Model confidence
47.8%
Irapuato has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
GF 8 · GA 2 · avg 1.60/0.40