Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Celaya · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Cancún are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DWLLW), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Celaya are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DWLWW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Celaya hold a 39.6-point power-rating edge (13.2 v 52.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 46.5% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Celaya holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 50% BTTS chance and 46% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Celaya
Probability
46.5%
Model confidence
46.5%
Celaya has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00