Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Celaya · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Cancún are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLWWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Celaya are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWWLD), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Celaya hold a 39.6-point power-rating edge (13.2 v 52.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 46.5% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Celaya holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 50% BTTS chance and 46% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Celaya
Probability
46.5%
Model confidence
46.5%
Celaya has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00