Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Canada W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%), 1-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Canada W 3-4 Denmark W
Original prediction
Canada W
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 18:34 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.75 | 51.6% | 48.5% | -3.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.32 | 27.2% | 26.9% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 4.25 | 21.2% | 24.6% | 3.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.2–010%
- 3.1–19%
Predicted outcome
Canada W
Probability
48.5%
Model confidence
48.5%
Canada W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Canada WDWLWW
GF 14 · GA 3 · avg 2.80/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Denmark WDWWDW
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Canada WDenmark W
93.3Attack33.3
80.0Defence66.7
66.7Form33.3
74.9Power45.3
2.44xG1.02