Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Canada W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Canada W 1-1 Denmark W
Original prediction
Canada W
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 18:34 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.73 | 52.0% | 47.7% | -4.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.36 | 26.7% | 27.0% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 4.22 | 21.3% | 25.3% | 4.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.36 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Canada W
Probability
47.7%
Model confidence
47.7%
Canada W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Canada WWLWWL
GF 13 · GA 3 · avg 2.60/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
Denmark WWWDWD
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Canada WDenmark W
100.0Attack50.0
83.3Defence50.0
75.0Form50.0
80.7Power50.0
2.38xG1.12