Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Canada · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (13%), 1-0 (13%), 1-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Canada 2-0 Peru
Original prediction
Canada
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 00:32 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.50 | 61.7% | 54.9% | -6.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.03 | 22.9% | 24.9% | 2.0 pts |
| Away | 5.97 | 15.4% | 20.2% | 4.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.50 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–013%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.1–111%
Predicted outcome
Canada
Probability
54.9%
Model confidence
54.9%
Canada has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CanadaWDWDD
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
PeruDLLWD
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
CanadaPeru
38.9Attack38.9
83.3Defence27.8
66.7Form27.8
65.7Power34.9
1.88xG0.75