Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chile · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Canada 1-0 Chile
Original prediction
Chile
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.62 | 57.4% | 33.4% | -24.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.72 | 25.0% | 25.8% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 5.26 | 17.6% | 40.8% | 23.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
23.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–210%
Predicted outcome
Chile
Probability
40.8%
Model confidence
40.8%
Chile has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CanadaDWDDW
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
ChileWLWWW
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
CanadaChile
33.3Attack91.7
0.0Defence83.3
0.0Form83.3
15.3Power83.2
1.01xG1.98