World CupWorld Cup
Friday, 12 June 2026Last updated 10:13
Canada

Canada

Home
LWLWD
11
Full time
Bosnia & Herzegovina

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Away
LWLD
BMO Field
GoalVio prediction
50% confidence
Canada(50%)
Most likely exact score1-0
Prediction missed— Result: Draw
Win probability
Canada
50%
Draw
24%
Bosnia & Herzegovina
27%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Canada
66
Bosnia & Herzegovina
44
Defence
Canada
58
Bosnia & Herzegovina
27
Momentum
Canada
47
Bosnia & Herzegovina
33
Danger (xG)
Canada
1.50
Bosnia & Herzegovina
0.50
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (Canada)
1.50
avg per match
xG for (Bosnia & Herzegovina)
0.50
avg per match
xG against (Canada)
0.99
avg per match
xG against (Bosnia & Herzegovina)
0.92
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
CanadaCanada
LWLWD
Bosnia & HerzegovinaBosnia & Herzegovina
LWLD

Probability breakdown

50% confidence
Canada50%
Draw24%
Bosnia & Herzegovina27%

Canada leads with 50% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

Share this

Analysis

Match insights

Canada head into this in World Cup fixture at BMO Field in mixed form (LWLWD), while Bosnia & Herzegovina arrive in mixed form (LWLD). Canada have a 40% win rate across their last 5 matches, compared to 25% for Bosnia & Herzegovina over 4 games.

Tactically, this looks like a one-sided contest. Canada's strong attack (66/100) faces a vulnerable Bosnia & Herzegovina defence (27/100), while Bosnia & Herzegovina's attack is up against a average Canada backline. The model sees a clear mismatch in Canada's favour.

Canada have won 1 of their last 3 home fixtures, averaging 2.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game at home. Bosnia & Herzegovina have found it tough away from home, failing to win any of their last 3 away matches. They average 0.7 goals scored and 2.3 conceded per away game.

Canada have generated 2.21 xG per game recently while conceding 0.46 xG per match. Bosnia & Herzegovina have generated 0.37 xG per game recently while conceding 0.93 xG per match, overperforming their xG in 67% of recent matches.

The last 1 meetings between these sides have been evenly split, with 1 draw, averaging 2.0 goals per game, both teams scored in 1 of those fixtures.

The GoalVio engine projects Canada to win with 50% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 1-0. Win probabilities: Canada 4964%, Draw 2360%, Bosnia & Herzegovina 2676%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Head to head

Canada 0Draws 10 Bosnia & Herzegovina
Avg goals: 2.0BTTS in 1/1
12 Jun 2026
Canada
D11
Bosnia & Herzegovina

Recent form

Canada

Canada

L
vs Morocco
4 Jul 2026
03
W
@ South Africa
28 Jun 2026
10
xG 1.3
L
@ Switzerland
24 Jun 2026
12
xG 1.2
W
vs Qatar
18 Jun 2026
60
xG 4.1
D
vs Bosnia & Herzegovina
12 Jun 2026
11
Bosnia & Herzegovina

Bosnia & Herzegovina

L
@ USA
2 Jul 2026
02
xG 0.2
W
vs Qatar
24 Jun 2026
31
xG 0.7
L
@ Switzerland
18 Jun 2026
14
xG 0.2
D
@ Canada
12 Jun 2026
11

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina?

GoalVio's model predicts Canada to win with 50% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

Explore more predictions

About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
View full accuracy stats →
Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more