Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Twente · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cambuur 1-4 Twente
Original prediction
Twente
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 7.69 | 12.3% | 24.7% | 12.5 pts |
| Draw | 5.58 | 16.9% | 23.7% | 6.8 pts |
| Away | 1.33 | 70.9% | 51.6% | -19.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.33 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-19.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Twente
Probability
51.6%
Model confidence
51.6%
Twente has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CambuurLLLLL
GF 5 · GA 17 · avg 1.00/3.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
TwenteWLWDL
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
CambuurTwente
11.1Attack50.0
22.2Defence66.7
11.1Form50.0
19.5Power56.2
1.25xG1.87