Cambuurvs
AZ Alkmaar
COMPLETEDNetherlands · Eredivisie · 10/18/2026, 12:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AZ Alkmaar · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-3 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cambuur 2-2 AZ Alkmaar
Original prediction
AZ Alkmaar
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 00:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.89 | 15.9% | 14.3% | -1.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.77 | 19.7% | 18.1% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 1.46 | 64.4% | 67.6% | 3.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.77 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–211%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–39%
Predicted outcome
AZ Alkmaar
Probability
67.6%
Model confidence
67.6%
AZ Alkmaar has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00