Caldasvs
Vitória de Sernache
COMPLETEDPortugal · Liga 3 · 9/13/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Caldas · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Caldas 2-0 Vitória de Sernache
Original prediction
Caldas
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.02 | 44.5% | 40.7% | -3.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.04 | 29.6% | 29.5% | -0.0 pts |
| Away | 3.47 | 25.9% | 29.7% | 3.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.02 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Caldas
Probability
40.7%
Model confidence
40.7%
Caldas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CaldasWLDLD
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Vitória de SernacheLLDLL
GF 3 · GA 13 · avg 0.60/2.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
CaldasVitória de Sernache
53.6Attack50.0
53.6Defence50.0
54.8Form50.0
56.2Power50.0
1.52xG1.09