Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mafra · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (11%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Caldas 3-3 Mafra
Original prediction
Mafra
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 19:43 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.08 | 29.4% | 35.1% | 5.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.15 | 28.7% | 29.3% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 2.17 | 41.8% | 35.6% | -6.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.15 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Mafra
Probability
35.6%
Model confidence
35.6%
Mafra has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CaldasLWWLL
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
MafraWDDLW
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
CaldasMafra
40.0Attack40.0
46.7Defence53.3
46.7Form33.3
46.6Power45.2
1.26xG1.12