Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Calamocha · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (9%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Calamocha 0-3 Tudelano
Original prediction
Calamocha
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.98 | 30.0% | 35.7% | 5.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.01 | 29.7% | 28.6% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.22 | 40.3% | 35.6% | -4.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–09%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Calamocha
Probability
35.7%
Model confidence
35.7%
Calamocha has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CalamochaWLLL
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.75/2.50
BTTS 1/4O2.5 2/4
TudelanoWLDWL
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
CalamochaTudelano
50.0Attack33.3
0.0Defence55.6
50.0Form44.4
36.5Power47.5
1.34xG1.22