Calamochavs
Peña Sport
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 · 10/18/2026, 2:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Peña Sport · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Calamocha 1-1 Peña Sport
Original prediction
Peña Sport
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 16:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.69 | 33.3% | 29.8% | -3.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.02 | 29.7% | 27.6% | -2.1 pts |
| Away | 2.41 | 37.1% | 42.6% | 5.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.02 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Peña Sport
Probability
42.6%
Model confidence
42.6%
Peña Sport has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 14 · avg 0.60/2.80
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60