Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tre Penne · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cailungo 0-2 Tre Penne
Original prediction
Tre Penne
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 19.00 | 4.8% | 22.6% | 17.8 pts |
| Draw | 6.80 | 13.3% | 23.1% | 9.8 pts |
| Away | 1.10 | 82.0% | 54.3% | -27.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.10 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-27.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Tre Penne
Probability
54.3%
Model confidence
54.3%
Tre Penne has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CailungoLLLDL
GF 3 · GA 13 · avg 0.60/2.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Tre PenneWWWWL
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
CailungoTre Penne
16.7Attack83.3
50.0Defence66.7
0.0Form100.0
26.7Power86.5
1.17xG1.78