Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Libertas · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (11%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cailungo 1-2 Libertas
Original prediction
Libertas
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 08:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.17 | 28.3% | 35.6% | 7.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.34 | 26.8% | 28.0% | 1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.00 | 44.9% | 36.5% | -8.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Libertas
Probability
36.5%
Model confidence
36.5%
Libertas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CailungoWLLLL
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
LibertasDLLWD
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
CailungoLibertas
33.3Attack33.3
58.3Defence58.3
25.0Form41.7
39.1Power47.4
1.24xG1.12