Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Domagnano · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (13%), 1-1 (12%), 0-2 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cailungo 1-2 Domagnano
Original prediction
Domagnano
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.89 | 13.1% | 16.2% | 3.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.57 | 19.7% | 21.6% | 1.9 pts |
| Away | 1.34 | 67.2% | 62.2% | -5.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.34 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–113%
- 2.1–112%
- 3.0–212%
Predicted outcome
Domagnano
Probability
62.2%
Model confidence
62.2%
Domagnano has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CailungoDLLLL
GF 5 · GA 17 · avg 1.00/3.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
DomagnanoLWLWL
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
CailungoDomagnano
16.7Attack35.5
14.4Defence51.6
15.6Form37.6
19.2Power43.4
0.79xG1.69