Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cagliari · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Cagliari are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (DWWWW), averaging 2.40 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Palermo are 1W-2D-1L in their last 4 (WDDL), averaging 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 9 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Cagliari hold a 31.4-point power-rating edge (55.1 v 23.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 47.4% in the Coppa Italia, while Cagliari holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 61% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Cagliari
Probability
47.4%
Model confidence
47.4%
Cagliari has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 3 · avg 2.40/0.60
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.50/1.00