Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Inter · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cagliari 0-1 Inter
Original prediction
Inter
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 7.70 | 12.4% | 30.4% | 18.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.63 | 20.6% | 26.8% | 6.2 pts |
| Away | 1.42 | 67.1% | 42.8% | -24.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.42 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-24.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Inter
Probability
42.8%
Model confidence
42.8%
Inter has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CagliariWWDDW
GF 5 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
InterWWWDD
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
CagliariInter
33.3Attack100.0
100.0Defence66.7
100.0Form100.0
80.3Power88.7
1.27xG1.20