Cagliarivs
Hellas Verona
COMPLETEDItaly · Coppa Italia · 9/3/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cagliari · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cagliari 1-2 Hellas Verona
Original prediction
Cagliari
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.92 | 48.7% | 44.8% | -3.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.32 | 28.1% | 27.3% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 4.03 | 23.2% | 27.9% | 4.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Cagliari
Probability
44.8%
Model confidence
44.8%
Cagliari has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00