Caerswsvs
Guilsfield
COMPLETEDWales · FAW Championship · 10/24/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Caersws · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Caersws 2-2 Guilsfield
Original prediction
Caersws
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.04 | 44.5% | 48.1% | 3.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.72 | 24.3% | 23.8% | -0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.90 | 31.2% | 28.0% | -3.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.72 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
Caersws
Probability
48.1%
Model confidence
48.1%
Caersws has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CaerswsDDWLW
GF 12 · GA 8 · avg 2.40/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
GuilsfieldDLWWD
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
CaerswsGuilsfield
73.3Attack48.5
50.0Defence57.6
60.0Form48.5
61.4Power52.4
2.11xG1.33