Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Caersws · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Caersws 3-3 Bala Town
Original prediction
Caersws
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 03:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.85 | 31.9% | 46.4% | 14.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.75 | 24.2% | 22.0% | -2.2 pts |
| Away | 2.06 | 44.0% | 31.6% | -12.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.85 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
14.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Caersws
Probability
46.4%
Model confidence
46.4%
Caersws has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CaerswsWLWWW
GF 13 · GA 5 · avg 2.60/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Bala TownLWLWL
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
CaerswsBala Town
75.0Attack63.0
54.2Defence48.1
66.7Form66.7
65.2Power60.8
2.45xG1.64