Caernarfon Townvs
The New Saints
COMPLETEDWales · Premier League · 8/31/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
The New Saints · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Caernarfon Town 2-3 The New Saints
Original prediction
The New Saints
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.29 | 17.1% | 31.8% | 14.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.04 | 22.4% | 23.9% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 1.49 | 60.5% | 44.3% | -16.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.49 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-16.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
The New Saints
Probability
44.3%
Model confidence
44.3%
The New Saints has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 6 · avg 2.60/1.20
GF 13 · GA 1 · avg 2.60/0.20