Caernarfon Townvs
Flint Town United
COMPLETEDWales · Premier League · 9/4/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Caernarfon Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 3-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Caernarfon Town 3-0 Flint Town United
Original prediction
Caernarfon Town
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.47 | 61.2% | 62.6% | 1.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.19 | 21.5% | 20.1% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 5.18 | 17.4% | 17.3% | -0.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.47 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–09%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.3–09%
Predicted outcome
Caernarfon Town
Probability
62.6%
Model confidence
62.6%
Caernarfon Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 8 · avg 2.60/1.60
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60