Caernarfon Townvs
Cambrian & Clydach
COMPLETEDWales · Premier League · 9/18/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Caernarfon Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Caernarfon Town 9-1 Cambrian & Clydach
Original prediction
Caernarfon Town
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.43 | 62.7% | 61.0% | -1.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.31 | 20.7% | 19.6% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 5.40 | 16.6% | 19.3% | 2.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.43 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Caernarfon Town
Probability
61.0%
Model confidence
61.0%
Caernarfon Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 16 · GA 7 · avg 3.20/1.40
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60