Caernarfon Townvs
Briton Ferry
COMPLETEDWales · Premier League · 10/23/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Caernarfon Town · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-0 (14%), 2-0 (12%), 4-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Caernarfon Town 3-1 Briton Ferry
Original prediction
Caernarfon Town
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.36 | 66.7% | 74.3% | 7.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.79 | 18.9% | 14.9% | -4.0 pts |
| Away | 6.30 | 14.4% | 10.8% | -3.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.36 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–014%
- 2.2–012%
- 3.4–012%
Predicted outcome
Caernarfon Town
Probability
74.3%
Model confidence
74.3%
Caernarfon Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 16 · GA 6 · avg 3.20/1.20
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80