Caernarfon Townvs
Barry Town
COMPLETEDWales · Premier League · 10/3/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Caernarfon Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (8%), 2-1 (7%), 4-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Caernarfon Town 0-1 Barry Town
Original prediction
Caernarfon Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 03:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.48 | 60.9% | 60.9% | 0.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.31 | 20.8% | 19.0% | -1.9 pts |
| Away | 4.92 | 18.3% | 20.1% | 1.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–18%
- 2.2–17%
- 3.4–17%
Predicted outcome
Caernarfon Town
Probability
60.9%
Model confidence
60.9%
Caernarfon Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 20 · GA 4 · avg 4.00/0.80
GF 9 · GA 13 · avg 1.80/2.60