GGOALVIO

Wales · Premier League · 8/29/2023, 6:45:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Caernarfon Town are 2W-1D-0L in their last 3 (DWW), averaging 2.33 scored and 0.67 conceded, while Bala Town are 2W-1D-0L in their last 3 (WDW), averaging 0.67 scored and 0.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 6 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Bala Town hold a 2.5-point power-rating edge (53.0 v 55.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 36.2% in the Premier League, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 44% BTTS chance and 36% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Draw

Probability

36.2%

Model confidence

36.2%

Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Caernarfon TownDWW

GF 7 · GA 2 · avg 2.33/0.67

BTTS 2/3O2.5 2/3
Bala TownWDW

GF 2 · GA 0 · avg 0.67/0.00

BTTS 0/3O2.5 0/3
Caernarfon TownBala Town
50.0Attack39.6
50.0Defence67.7
50.0Form53.1
53.0Power55.5
1.04xG1.10
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