GGOALVIO

Wales · FAW Championship · 8/31/2026, 1:30:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Draw · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Lowconfidence

Caerau (Ely) are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DLDWW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Treowen Stars are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLWLL), averaging 1.80 scored and 3.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Treowen Stars hold a 16.5-point power-rating edge (36.5 v 53.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely result in the FAW Championship, favouring a draw with 8.7% confidence, a 74% BTTS chance and 74% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Draw

Probability

23.2%

Model confidence

8.7%

Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Caerau (Ely)DLDWW

GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20

BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Treowen StarsWLWLL

GF 9 · GA 16 · avg 1.80/3.20

BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
Caerau (Ely)Treowen Stars
66.7Attack66.7
16.7Defence33.3
16.7Form50.0
36.5Power53.0
1.94xG1.97
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