Caerau (Ely)vs
Treowen Stars
SCHEDULEDWales · FAW Championship · 8/31/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Caerau (Ely) are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DLDWW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Treowen Stars are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLWLL), averaging 1.80 scored and 3.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Treowen Stars hold a 16.5-point power-rating edge (36.5 v 53.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely result in the FAW Championship, favouring a draw with 8.7% confidence, a 74% BTTS chance and 74% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
23.2%
Model confidence
8.7%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
GF 9 · GA 16 · avg 1.80/3.20