Caerau (Ely)vs
Llantwit Major
COMPLETEDWales · FAW Championship · 10/23/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Caerau (Ely) · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-0 (9%), 4-0 (9%), 3-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Caerau (Ely) 0-2 Llantwit Major
Original prediction
Caerau (Ely)
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.25 | 72.1% | 70.4% | -1.7 pts |
| Draw | 5.44 | 16.6% | 16.3% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 7.95 | 11.3% | 13.3% | 2.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–09%
- 2.4–09%
- 3.3–19%
Predicted outcome
Caerau (Ely)
Probability
70.4%
Model confidence
70.4%
Caerau (Ely) has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 15 · GA 1 · avg 3.00/0.20
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00