Caerau (Ely)vs
llanelli AFC
COMPLETEDWales · Welsh Cup · 10/16/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Caerau (Ely) · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (8%), 2-1 (8%), 2-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Caerau (Ely) 6-0 llanelli AFC
Original prediction
Caerau (Ely)
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 October 2026 at 01:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.14 | 78.5% | 49.5% | -29.0 pts |
| Draw | 6.48 | 13.9% | 23.2% | 9.3 pts |
| Away | 11.82 | 7.6% | 27.3% | 19.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.14 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-29.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–18%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.2–28%
Predicted outcome
Caerau (Ely)
Probability
49.5%
Model confidence
49.5%
Caerau (Ely) has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 3 · avg 2.40/0.60
GF 3 · GA 15 · avg 0.60/3.00