Caerau (Ely)vs
llanelli AFC
COMPLETEDWales · FAW Championship · 9/11/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Caerau (Ely) · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (9%), 4-1 (8%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Caerau (Ely) 3-0 llanelli AFC
Original prediction
Caerau (Ely)
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.20 | 75.8% | 68.7% | -7.1 pts |
| Draw | 6.21 | 14.6% | 16.3% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 9.55 | 9.5% | 15.0% | 5.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.20 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–19%
- 2.4–18%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Caerau (Ely)
Probability
68.7%
Model confidence
68.7%
Caerau (Ely) has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 13 · avg 2.00/2.60
GF 4 · GA 15 · avg 0.80/3.00