Caerau (Ely)vs
Afan Lido
COMPLETEDWales · FAW Championship · 10/2/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Caerau (Ely) · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (7%), 2-2 (7%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Caerau (Ely) 2-0 Afan Lido
Original prediction
Caerau (Ely)
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 03:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.38 | 65.4% | 55.1% | -10.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.74 | 19.0% | 20.1% | 1.0 pts |
| Away | 5.80 | 15.6% | 24.9% | 9.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.38 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–17%
- 2.2–27%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
Caerau (Ely)
Probability
55.1%
Model confidence
55.1%
Caerau (Ely) has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 11 · avg 2.20/2.20
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40