Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rouen · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 0-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Caen 3-2 Rouen
Original prediction
Rouen
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 16:33 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.68 | 33.7% | 32.8% | -1.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.13 | 28.9% | 30.3% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 2.42 | 37.4% | 36.9% | -0.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.0–112%
Predicted outcome
Rouen
Probability
36.9%
Model confidence
36.9%
Rouen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CaenLWWLW
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60
BTTS 0/5O2.5 0/5
RouenWWDWW
GF 11 · GA 1 · avg 2.20/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
CaenRouen
57.1Attack61.9
66.7Defence90.5
57.1Form81.0
59.9Power77.7
1.01xG1.21