Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Caen · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Caen are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WDWLL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.40 conceded, while PAU are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (WDLLD), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Caen hold a 3.3-point power-rating edge (53.6 v 50.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 41.1% in the Ligue 2, while Caen holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 53% BTTS chance and 47% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Caen
Probability
41.1%
Model confidence
41.1%
Caen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80