Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Caen · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Caen 1-0 Gobelins, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Caen 2-0 Gobelins
Original prediction
Caen
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.60 | 56.7% | 49.8% | -6.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.67 | 24.8% | 27.2% | 2.5 pts |
| Away | 4.89 | 18.6% | 23.0% | 4.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.60 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.9 pts
Projected Score
Caen 1–0 Gobelins
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Caen
Probability
49.8%
Model confidence
49.8%
Caen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CaenWLWLW
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
GobelinsDDWLW
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
CaenGobelins
66.7Attack26.7
66.7Defence73.3
60.0Form53.3
63.5Power54.1
1.32xG0.75