Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Caen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (11%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Caen 0-1 Bastia
Original prediction
Caen
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.23 | 40.8% | 47.9% | 7.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.29 | 27.6% | 26.0% | -1.6 pts |
| Away | 2.87 | 31.6% | 26.0% | -5.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–011%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Caen
Probability
47.9%
Model confidence
47.9%
Caen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CaenWLWDW
GF 13 · GA 6 · avg 2.60/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
BastiaLWLDL
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
CaenBastia
88.9Attack33.3
55.6Defence44.4
66.7Form33.3
68.7Power40.3
1.82xG0.94